Fwd: Former Supreme Court clerks think the mandate is done for

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Leader of 71 <lesjulia1@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 23 Jun 2012 13:13:59 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Former Supreme Court clerks think the mandate is done for
To: opendebateforum@googlegroups.com



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page<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/poll-former-supreme-court-clerks-think-the-mandate-is-done-for/2012/06/21/gJQAYn8ZtV_print.html>
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Poll: Former Supreme Court clerks think the mandate is done forBy Sarah
Kliff<http://www.washingtonpost.com/sarah-kliff/2011/07/28/gIQAoLzSfI_page.html>
, Published: June 20

A new poll<http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Purple-AAF-CF%206.2012%20Topline.pdf>
of
56 former Supreme Court clerks finds that 57 percent think the individual
mandate will be overturned. That's a 22-point jump from the last time the
same group of clerks was surveyed, right before oral arguments. Back then,
35 percent thought the court would toss out the required purchase ofhealth
insurance<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/poll-former-supreme-court-clerks-think-the-mandate-is-done-for/2012/06/21/gJQAYn8ZtV_print.html#>
.

Most of the clerks found the Supreme Court's questioning to be more
skeptical than they had expected. As one clerk put
it<http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Purple-AAF%206.19.2012%20Memo.pdf>
to
Purple Strategies' Doug Usher, who conducted the research, "I feel like a
dope, because I was one of those who predicted that the Court would uphold
the statute by a lopsided majority…it now appears pretty likely that this
prediction was way off."

That seems to capture the mood of the rest of the country, too. Over on
InTrade <http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745354>,
the estimated likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning the mandate has
marched upward ever since oral arguments, hitting 79.9 percent Wednesday
morning.

Ezra has more<http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/06/25/120625fa_fact_klein>
about
how, exactly, the Supreme Court overturning the health reform law's
individual mandate went from an outside shot to the conventional wisdom. We
have more on why the individual mandate matters
here<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/individual-mandate-101-what-it-is-why-it-matters/2011/08/25/gIQAhPzCeS_blog.html>,
and also a rundown<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/what-happens-if-the-individual-mandate-falls/2012/04/04/gIQAVnoivS_blog.html>
of
the alternatives to the mandate, to increase insurance
enrollment<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/poll-former-supreme-court-clerks-think-the-mandate-is-done-for/2012/06/21/gJQAYn8ZtV_print.html#>,
should the provision fall.

© The Washington Post Company


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